Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 77908.164257 82307.840286 86711.695278 91447.339112 96392.579365 101401.152084 106854.159087
2025-12-07 71068.257909 77797.453997 84724.942409 92379.888048 100591.805474 109126.930725 118658.835625
2025-12-14 65612.155540 73887.005608 82597.346323 92429.823082 103200.171759 114618.851040 127619.861264
2025-12-21 61565.835344 71000.742016 81118.849331 92744.340675 105699.247760 119658.212390 135802.078518
2025-12-28 59045.564207 69508.009517 80909.087872 94207.966004 109244.739278 125669.185627 144914.473481
2026-01-04 56675.668279 67973.947609 80465.296572 95234.892623 112152.813363 130856.786779 153027.508915
2026-01-11 54402.073223 66385.435032 79812.618063 95887.855130 114521.098254 135349.116373 160296.643837
2026-01-18 52086.166868 64608.918345 78818.760130 96031.241790 116204.979256 138986.400833 166538.482737
2026-01-25 50052.412987 63052.758687 77980.728886 96262.131385 117910.850632 142590.373606 172705.250936
2026-02-01 48023.123317 61403.039843 76943.011488 96174.019274 119171.778826 145625.236556 178177.282734
2026-02-08 46602.608599 60416.909610 76631.948101 96893.120506 121342.345865 149697.109619 184857.470812
2026-02-15 44893.175642 59004.169819 75741.458639 96854.914386 122558.771664 152608.357262 190149.455763
2026-02-22 43968.636257 58538.157696 75989.369972 98199.523664 125461.560789 157570.111833 197960.801657
2026-03-01 42861.569712 57800.033650 75867.864733 99065.220851 127770.234214 161825.286136 204954.218657
2026-03-08 41416.990351 56580.594309 75101.445633 99090.848550 129017.350894 164780.404503 210377.108841
2026-03-15 40205.190891 55611.847147 74606.845307 99417.729410 130607.834025 168137.925124 216291.059398
2026-03-22 39634.229607 55442.094867 75097.474643 100965.509425 133709.464882 173352.007088 224503.058641
2026-03-29 38891.044852 55017.342832 75238.676275 102051.973395 136224.943549 177849.326602 231856.661894
2026-04-05 38015.140137 54385.883533 75087.368141 102742.854101 138228.432858 181711.535539 238440.238239
2026-04-12 36952.302663 53470.917696 74538.112528 102894.560672 139527.743132 184687.534204 243926.897705
2026-04-19 35981.459718 52647.609245 74079.898688 103138.863591 140927.117158 187781.344902 249567.649732
2026-04-26 34918.002049 51666.092477 73383.862737 103045.631364 141871.589626 190290.743828 254475.165220
2026-05-03 34248.139549 51199.759691 73350.413766 103806.487308 143911.807618 194189.845950 261155.800644